Just eight years after a Nobel Prize-winning handshake, Ethiopia and Eritrea are not talking again. Embassies shut, diplomats expelled, and gunfire back in Tigray.

It’s official. The neighbours who went from bitter enemies to unlikely allies are enemies again.

Recall On Thursday, Ethiopia ordered its embassy in Asmara closed and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata in Addis Ababa. Hours later, Eritrea said it had “no option” but to reciprocate and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.

If that sounds familiar, it is.

The history they cannot escape:

Ethiopia and Eritrea have one of Africa’s most tangled histories. Eritrea gained independence in 1993 after a 30-year war, leaving landlocked Ethiopia desperate for sea access — a grievance that still drives politics today.

Between 1998 and 2000 they fought a brutal border war that killed an estimated 70,000 to 100,000 people over the town of Badme, which barely appeared on maps. Then came the shock peace.

In 2018, Abiy Ahmed flew to Asmara, hugged Isaias, and ended 20 years of cold war. He won the Nobel Peace Prize for it. During the 2020-2022 Tigray war, they actually fought together against the TPLF — a conflict that killed an estimated 600,000 people, according to African Union and research estimates, making it one of the deadliest wars of the 21st century.

That alliance has now collapsed.

Behind the diplomatic language are people running again.

Hundreds are reported killed or wounded since fighting resumed last week. Aid groups say thousands have been freshly displaced in Tigray, Afar and Amhara. Doctors Without Borders says more than 700 wounded people have already been treated in hospitals across Tigray.

On the frontlines, government-aligned forces claim they have retaken several towns, but independent verification is near-impossible. Communications are down, access is restricted, and journalists are largely barred.

And in a worrying twist, overnight blasts were heard in Addis Ababa near the military headquarters, raising fears that a northern war could creep towards the capital of 5.5 million people. The cause and casualties remain unclear.

Why does this matter?

Three reasons you should care:

1. A regional war risk: This is not just Ethiopia. The African Union is already urging de-escalation between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt, with Sudan also drawn in. Ethiopia’s push for a Red Sea port has put every neighbour on edge.

2. Aid at risk: Tigray is still recovering from famine conditions and a shattered health system from the last war. Another blockade would be catastrophic for 6 million people.

3. The Pretoria deal is dying: The 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement that stopped the last war was already fragile. If both sides are mobilising again, we are looking at a second Tigray war.

What is the TPLF?

Think of the TPLF as Tigray’s dominant political force. It ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, then fell out spectacularly with Abiy after he sidelined it. It says it is fighting for Tigrayan self-determination. The federal government says it is a spoiler trying to break up Ethiopia. The truth, as ever, is somewhere in between — but civilians pay the price.

What happens next?

Watch three things in the next 72 hours:

1. The border: Will Eritrean troops, estimated at 200,000-300,000 strong, mass along the frontier?

2. The AU: Can the African Union get both sides back to Pretoria before full mobilisation?

3. Aid corridors: Will the UN and NGOs get access to Mekelle and Shire before hospitals run out of supplies?

For now, there are no ambassadors left to call. And that is the most dangerous sign of all.

Source: cbinews.tv.

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