Germany is rattled and Friedrich Merz knows it. After his CDU was booted out of parliament in one state and beaten in the capital, the chancellor admitted it was a disaster but insisted he is going nowhere.

As first reported by cbinews.tv, Merz faced cameras at CDU headquarters in Berlin on Sunday night and tried to sound defiant. This was not just a bad night, it was historic. In Mecklenburg Vorpommern in the north east, the CDU failed to clear the five percent hurdle needed to get into the state parliament.

That is likely the worst result the party has posted in any state since World War Two. Public broadcasters ZDF and ARD put AfD on 38 percent there, just ahead of the centre left SPD on 35 percent.

At the same time in Berlin, the story was different but just as painful for Merz. The Left, Die Linke, which has never topped a poll in the capital before, was projected on nearly 26 percent, with the CDU trailing on 19 percent. AfD was also up in Berlin on around 16 percent.

This is about more than numbers on a screen. In Mecklenburg Vorpommern, many voters in the former communist east say they feel left behind, squeezed by energy bills and worried about migration.

AfD with its anti immigration, Germany first and Russian friendly message has tapped straight into that frustration. In Berlin, it is rents, transport and the cost of living that is driving people to the Left.

Germany is Europe's biggest economy and its anchor of stability. When the governing party collapses in two states on the same night, a fortnight after its vote was halved in Saxony Anhalt where AfD won big, it sends jitters through Brussels and beyond. It also raises real questions about whether the so called firewall, where all other parties refuse to work with AfD, can hold if AfD keeps winning.

The five percent rule means any party below that gets no seats at all in a state parliament. A chancellor swap is Berlin talk for the ruling coalition ditching its leader mid term and installing someone else without a new general election. The firewall is the agreement among mainstream parties not to form coalitions with AfD, even if AfD comes first.

Merz has wanted this job for decades and he is not quitting after 16 months. Earlier this week eight state leaders backed him and on Sunday Berlin CDU figure Burkard Dregger told newsmen he should stay on because there is no time to waste forming a new federal government. Merz says his answer is reform.

The reforms have to come, he said, insisting they are the antidote to the authoritarian poison spreading in society. He is promising a big package on the economy, tax and welfare, saying it will need backbone, steadfastness and patience.

Whether voters buy it is another matter. Final results were due late Sunday or Monday morning, but pressure on Merz is already building.

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