Westminster is bracing for a political earthquake — Keir Starmer is expected to step down as PM on Monday after a dramatic revolt from his own MPs.

So, it looks like Keir Starmer’s time in No. 10 is up. The Prime Minister is expected to announce his resignation on Monday after facing huge pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham to take over as party leader and PM.

It’s a stunning turnaround, just two years after Starmer led Labour to that massive general election win with a 174-seat majority. But the mood in the party has shifted — and fast.

Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Business Secretary Peter Kyle wouldn’t be drawn on Starmer’s exact plans. But he admitted the PM is well aware of the “political realities” and is thinking about what’s best for the country. “I don’t want to come on here and be delusional that there is no process, there are no forces at work which are challenging the prime minister as leader – that is clearly the case,” Kyle said.

For weeks, Starmer and his allies had insisted they’d fight any leadership challenge. Even on Friday, after Burnham’s big win in the Makerfield by-election, Starmer told reporters he’d fight on.

But the tide seems to have turned. Burnham’s return to Westminster changed everything. The Greater Manchester mayor stormed to victory on Thursday with more than 50% of the vote and a 9,000-plus majority over Reform. His team now reckons they’ve got the backing of about 200 Labour MPs — roughly half the parliamentary party — and that number’s still growing. Many in the party are now pushing for a quick “coronation” for Burnham, avoiding a messy leadership contest. Under Labour rules, any challenger needs 81 MPs to nominate them. Wes Streeting, who quit as Health Secretary last month, says he’ll run and has the numbers. But Starmer and Burnham allies aren’t convinced.

Kyle urged the party to handle any change “in a functional way” and warned against thinking a new leader alone fixes everything. “The Tories always thought that changing the person at the top would fix everything, and that patently is not the case,” he said.

If Starmer does go, it’ll mean the UK gets its seventh prime minister in 10 years. His premiership has been dogged by U-turns — from winter fuel payments to that Peter Mandelson appointment in Washington — and Labour’s slumped in the polls. With Reform UK leading in over 300 straight national polls, plenty of Labour MPs now fear Nigel Farage could be next in Downing Street unless they act.

Starmer reportedly spoke at length with Kyle on Friday, repeatedly asking what the country wanted. Kyle wouldn’t say what advice he gave, but stressed: “We need to find a way to get through this that puts the country first. "Ministers who were once loyal to Starmer have now told him to set a timetable for leaving by the end of the weekend — or face being forced out at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.

It’s all moving very fast. And by Monday, we could have a new Labour leader — and a new Prime Minister.

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