Can anyone stop him? Erling Haaland starts the new season as the man to beat yet again, but after a 22-goal breakout from Brentford’s Igor Thiago last term, the Golden Boot race might finally be getting interesting.

Right, let’s talk Golden Boot. The 2026/27 Premier League season hasn’t even kicked off, and we’ve already got the same question as always — who, if anyone, is actually going to outscore Erling Haaland?

According to cbinews.tv, the Norwegian is still the clear favourite, and it’s not hard to see why.

The Man to Beat

Erling Haaland – Manchester City

It’s frankly ridiculous what he’s done since landing in England. 36 goals in his debut season in 2022/23 – breaking the 38-game record – then 27 goals last season alone, and three Golden Boots in four Premier League campaigns. He’s already up there with Thierry Henry, who won it four times.

City are heading into a bit of an unknown with Enzo Maresca now in the dugout following Pep Guardiola’s departure this summer, so tactics might shift, but one thing won’t: Haaland will still be the focal point. If he stays fit, 25+ goals is basically his baseline.

The Main Challengers

Alexander Isak – Liverpool

This is a big one. Isak leading the line for Liverpool still feels surreal after his big-money move from Newcastle last summer. When fit, he’s arguably the most complete finisher in the league outside of Haaland – quick, two-footed, ice-cold. The issue was last season was stop-start with injuries. If he gets a full run under Arne Slot, he’s the most likely to push Haaland to 30 goals.

Igor Thiago – Brentford

What a story last season was. The Brazilian came from nowhere to bag 22 Premier League goals and finish second to Haaland, effectively filling the Ivan Toney-shaped hole at Brentford. Historically, Brentford strikers struggle to back it up – remember Toney himself dipping after his 20-goal season? Thiago now has to prove he’s not a one-season wonder. The pressure is completely different this time around.

Viktor Gyokeres – Arsenal

Fourteen goals in his first Premier League season aren’t to be sniffed at, especially coming from Sporting where he hit 39 in the Primeira Liga the year before. The Swedish striker took a few months to adapt to the pace of English football, but Arsenal will expect a proper jump this year. Think of how his countryman Zlatan went from 17 to 28 in his second season in a top league – Arsenal fans will be hoping for similar.

Joao Pedro – Chelsea

Another Brazilian who’s quietly becoming elite. Fifteen league goals last season for Chelsea, and now with Xabi Alonso tipped to take over at Stamford Bridge, he could thrive in a more possession-heavy, attacking system. He’s still only 24, so there’s a feeling his best goalscoring year is still ahead of him.

The Outside Bets

Ollie Watkins – Aston Villa

Mr. Consistency. Watkins has hit double figures in each of his last four Premier League seasons and got 12 last time out. He won the Playmaker Award two seasons ago with 13 assists, so he’s always contributed more than just goals, but to genuinely challenge for the Golden Boot, he needs to get back to that 19-goal form of 2023/24.

Benjamin Sesko – Manchester United

United have been crying out for a proper number nine, and Sesko might finally be it. At 6ft 5in, he’s got the physicality for the Premier League and he finished last season strongly. If he can stay consistent – his Bundesliga record was always hot and cold – a 20-goal season isn’t out of the question.

Others to watch: Dominic Solanke, Antoine Semenyo and Morgan Gibbs-White have all been flagged as dark horses. Solanke already proved he can hit 19 in this league, while Semenyo’s move into a more central role at Bournemouth last season saw his numbers explode.

The historical context here is important – since 2000, only four players have scored 25+ goals and NOT won the Golden Boot. In other words, you normally need an outrageous tally to beat Haaland.

But with new managers at City and Chelsea, a new-look Liverpool attack, and a couple of breakout stars hungry to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, 2026/27 might be the most open Golden Boot race we’ve had in years.

Can anyone actually do it? We’ll see.

This report is based on analysis originally compiled by BBC Sport, via cbinews.tv

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