Ethiopia could be heading for a major shake up. Seven rebel groups who once fought each other have now joined forces and say they want to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power in Addis Ababa.

As reported by cbinews.tv, the new coalition is called Alliance for Survival. It brings together big hitters like the Fano militia in Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army or OLA, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front or TPLF and the Ogaden National Liberation Front or ONLF, plus three other groups from Somali, Afar and Benishangul Gumuz. That is six out of Ethiopia's 12 regional states.

The groups accuse Abiy's government of presiding over war, genocide, mass destruction and utter poverty and warn the country is at risk of disintegration.

This is not coming out of nowhere. Ethiopia has more than 80 ethnic groups and runs a system of ethnic federalism which gives regions some autonomy but often fuels tension. Oromia and Amhara are the two most populous states and both have seen years of armed conflict.

In Tigray in the north, a two year civil war left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions before an African Union peace deal ended it in 2022.

That deal now looks shaky, with both sides accusing each other of breaking it. ONLF spokesman Abdikadir Addaani Hirmooge told newsmen that a separate 2018 peace deal for the Somali region was not respected either.

For ordinary Ethiopians, this is exhausting. Families in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray have lived through conscription, displacement and food insecurity for years. Fano itself once fought alongside federal forces against TPLF during the Tigray war, then turned against Addis Ababa less than a year later after refusing to disarm.

OLA has been fighting the government since 2018. Now these former rivals say they will work together. Their spokesman said the aim is for communities to have democracy and to genuinely govern themselves and exercise their right to self determination.

Ethiopia has about 130 million people, it is Africa's second most populous country and a key player in the Horn of Africa. If half its regions are in open revolt, the risk is not just more internal suffering but wider instability next door to already fragile Sudan and Somalia. It also matters for markets, aid and migration routes into Europe.

Think of it as a marriage of convenience. Ethnic federalism means states are organised around dominant ethnic identities, so grievances often become regional. These groups have different agendas but share one common enemy in Abiy's Prosperity Party.

In July Abiy told lawmakers he had faith in Ethiopia's defensive capabilities and said even if others were added, we do not have an iota of fear regarding sovereignty. That came after reports of a possible link up between TPLF and neighbouring Eritrea.

In June, Abiy's Prosperity Party kept its huge parliamentary majority in a general election that Fano and OLA rejected, and Tigray's six million people were completely excluded. Watch whether the alliance can move from press statement to joint operations, and whether Addis Ababa offers talks or a new crackdown.

Ethiopia has seen grand coalitions before. In 2021, nine groups formed a similar anti government front during the Tigray war but it fizzled. The difference now is Fano and TPLF, once battlefield enemies, are in the same tent. If that holds, it would be a first.

#Ethiopia #AbiyAhmed #TPLF #Fano #OLA #ONLF #HornOfAfrica #AfricaNews #EthiopiaConflict