Just when many hoped the worst was over, Tigray is back in the headlines for all the wrong reasons and families are bracing for another round of conflict.

Addis Ababa and Tigray leaders have accused each other of launching offensives. Federal adviser Getachew Reda says Tigrayan forces seized airports in Tigray and attacked Afar and Amhara. Tigray authorities say they were forced into a defensive war after drone strikes.

The human cost is already showing. In Alamata, mayor Mogos Shiferaw said strikes on Tuesday killed at least 14 civilians and injured 22. He said secondary schools were hit, sparking panic. In Mekelle, residents say local forces retook the airport and Ethiopian Airlines has cancelled all flights. On Monday a Catholic convoy carrying food aid was reportedly hit, prompting condemnation from the US Bureau of African Affairs.

Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous nation. The last war was among the deadliest this century, with the African Union mediator estimating about 600,000 deaths and famine conditions. A return to fighting would cut aid routes and destabilise the Horn of Africa.

The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades until Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. A two year war erupted in 2020 and ended with the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022.

That deal was meant to restore services and disarm fighters but both sides are accused of dragging their feet. In May, elections were not held in Tigray due to insecurity and the TPLF restored its prewar administration. On Sunday it announced an alliance with six other armed groups to oust the government in Addis Ababa.

The Pretoria Agreement still exists on paper but needs real political will. The US and AU are urging dialogue and an investigation into strikes on civilians and aid. For now, de escalation looks fragile and ordinary people fear a repeat of history.

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