Just three years after a peace deal ended one of Africa's deadliest wars, are Ethiopia's guns roaring back to life?

So, here's what's happening – and it's worrying a lot of people who follow the Horn of Africa.

Authorities in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region are accusing Addis Ababa of launching a drone strike just outside the regional capital, Mekelle, as first reported by cbinews.tv.

According to a statement posted on social media by the Tigray administration, the drone hit a farmer training centre in Dandera village – that's about 15 kilometres outside Mekelle. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which governs the state, says there were no injuries. They didn't give much more away.

But then, a slightly different version emerged. A local priest, who didn't want to be named, told AFP he saw at least one fighter killed in the strike being carried away in a vehicle, and believes two others were wounded. He said the projectile landed on farmland close to a school, near a watering hole used for local farmers' livestock.

Ethiopia's federal army? They haven't commented yet.

Why this matters – the bigger picture

If this feels like déjà vu, that's because it is.

This is less than four years after the Pretoria Agreement was signed in November 2022, ending a brutal two-year civil war between Tigrayan forces and the federal government and its allies. That war was devastating. While casualty figures are hotly contested, researchers at Ghent University and African Union envoys estimated at least 600,000 deaths from fighting, starvation and lack of healthcare – making it one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.

The peace deal was hailed as a breakthrough, but implementation has been patchy at best. Disarmament, the return of nearly a million internally displaced people, and the status of contested areas in Western Tigray have all stalled.

Now tensions are spiking again. In recent weeks, both sides have accused the other of massing forces along the regional border – Tigrayan forces on one side, federal troops and Amhara regional forces on the other – and of plotting to restart the war. Humanitarian groups are already warning that any new escalation would be catastrophic for a region still heavily dependent on food aid.

With communication blackouts common in the area and independent access limited, verifying what happened in Dandera is incredibly difficult – which is why claims from both sides need to be treated carefully.

For now, all eyes are on Addis Ababa and Mekelle to see whether this was an isolated incident or the start of something far more serious.

Reporting via cbinews.tv

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